Price of Oil what is ahead?

Price of oil estimation has always been a very complex science and always missed by experts. There is no long term business plan that could assure shield to price fluctuations.

Technically the production in the US increased substantially due more that 1600 rigs operating for several years. The US can not export by law oil so the oil storage capacity is being compromise by this increase.

Wall street WTI is based on storage data of Cushing OK, rig count, EIA reports, supply disruption news, etc. If the US producers are allowed to export excess production the price of oil will estabilize back to 70 USD-80 USD range. Worldwide demand is increasing at a constant rate.

The sharp decline of production in the US is being felt now and most likely with be sharp drop by the first quarter of next year.  This cannot be replaced by imports, there is a limit of what OPEC and other producing countries can deliver.

You will say no problem Iran will cover the gap, not really projects do not turn on as turning a light switch, it will take 10 to 15 years for Iran to catch up even more time.

See ya

Driller!